I am writing this a week before the General Election on 4th July which, if the polls are to be believed, will see Labour secure a significant majority of seats and form the next Government.
The election campaigns of the parties have been dominated as much by scandal and sleaze as by concrete policies with housing featuring via a series of “wish list” plans to increase housebuilding, improve tenant’s rights and make it easier for first time buyers to get on the housing ladder. All highly laudable.
In reality there is very little that is new but it is clear that Labour’s spending plans – whilst being promoted as “fully costed” – go far beyond the tax take being spoken about and there must be concerns about potential increases in Inheritance Tax, Capital Gains Tax, a revaluation for Council Tax and even the introduction of a Wealth Tax – all of which could prove damaging to the property market.
House building target numbers are being spoken about at levels not seen since the late 1960’s. It is difficult to see how this particular “oil tanker” can be turned around quickly enough to meet the rhetoric.
Labour quite rightly, as do others, talk about economic growth as being the only sustainable way forward to improve personal wealth and public services. With plans to improve worker’s rights and impose windfall taxes it will remain to be seen whether they can achieve a relationship with businesses that creates this.
We already live with high taxation and we desperately need to improve investment, efficiency and productivity if we are to grow GDP as a country and per head.
The Tories have clearly lost a huge amount of confidence and support from the electorate and their leadership looks to be floundering from one PR crisis to another, yet the economy is looking better than a few months ago. Inflation is now hovering around 2% and we are likely to see the Bank of England reduce the base rate before the autumn, wage growth is running at above inflation levels and the tax take is increasing to facilitate hopes of reducing taxation levels in the foreseeable future.
The message of steady as she goes as we are on the right path is, however, seemingly falling on deaf ears and the emergence of Nigel Farage and Reform, with their focus on key populist topics such as immigration is likely to attract disaffected voters from both main parties with the Tories being particularly damaged.
in the "real world" there has, as expected, been a slowing of activity as people await the outcome of the General Election. The overall feeling however is fairly positive and activity levels are expected to rise again once the dust settles.
By July 5th we will know the outcome but it will be some time before we see the effect of any policies introduced.
If you have a vote, I urge you to use it – whether you do or don’t, we will still end up with the Government on July 5th but better to have had your say than looking on from the sidelines wondering if you could have made a difference.
Yours
Darren Murphy
